Intro by Doug Kezirian
While a potential Super Bowl matchup of Tom Brady against Bill Belichick has generated buzz this week, this Sunday’s game between Tampa Bay and Buffalo also could be a Super Bowl preview. The Bucs are currently 3- or 3.5-point home favorites, depending on the sportsbook.
“You’re going to see this number kick around three and 3.5 all week,” SuperBook executive director John Murray told ESPN. “There’s already a ton of money on this game, period. Lot of money on both sides. Lot of money on the game total both ways … definitely going to be the biggest handle game of the day.”
The Bills may now be relegated to the wild card race after losing at home to the Patriots on Monday in a bizarre and windy game. However, since becoming a legitimate contender last season, the Bills are 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Another Buffalo loss could open the door for the surging Chiefs to wind up the AFC’s top seed. Kansas City has won five straight games.
“I think Kansas City the last four or five weeks is one of the most interesting stories in the NFL,” Murray said. “All of a sudden the Chiefs are winning with their defense,”
Kansas City has held each opponent to 17 points or less during this current five-game win streak, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown more than one TD pass in just one of those games.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-23-2, 0-2 last week), Tyler Fulghum (15-23, 6-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (38-35-1, 2-3) and Anita Marks (202-185, 16-10), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (100-93, 8-6), ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder (51-44, 2-2) and Mackenzie Kraemer (5-13, 1-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (26-22-1, 2-2) and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz (41-35, 3-3) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 13.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday’s Week 14 games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Ravens-Browns | Jaguars-Titans | Raiders-Chiefs | Saints-Jets | Cowboys-Washington | Falcons-Panthers | Seahawks-Texans | Lions-Broncos | Giants-Chargers | 49ers-Bengals | Bills-Buccaneers | Bears-Packers
Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET games
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 43)
Walder: I know Baltimore’s passing offense hasn’t looked great recently, but these receiving lines have sunk too far. Normally when I compare the expected receiving yards per game — based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats — to a receiver’s line, they’re very close. Marquise Brown’s and Mark Andrews’ are not. Based on the targets they’ve received, the Ravens wide receiver and tight end have earned 74.3 and 71.3 expected receiving yards per game this season. I like each of their chances of going over.
Picks: Brown over 55.5 receiving yards (-115), Andrews over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
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