UK weather forecast: Chart shows snowfall may be on the way
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Charts show low-pressure weather fronts, which bring cloudy, windy and potentially wet weather, forming over the north of Britain. Forecasters suggest the pressure system could see Britain with snow on Christmas Day.
Netweather.tv posted charts showing a “strong signal for pressure to be higher than normal” to the north of the UK.
They noted “the precise location of the high will make a huge difference to the outcome though”, and posted a series of postage stamp maps showing “a very strong likelihood of high pressure being well in charge”.
They then added: “The most likely picture, at the moment, would be for the high to still be fairly nearby on the 25th, with a cold, frosty, perhaps foggy outlook more likely than a snowy one.
“Based on the current most likely outcome, the best shot of some flakes of snow would be in eastern regions.
“But, there are some lower likelihood options showing a much colder and potentially snowier picture, so there’s plenty to be keeping an eye on.”
The forecaster also said the likelihood of snow on Christmas Day varies by region.
Netweather.tv holds Scotland has the highest likelihood for a White Christmas, at 40 percent.
Northern Ireland and the Midlands were issued a 25 percent chance of snow, while East Anglia and south England are in with a 30 percent.
Wales is the least likely part of the UK to see snow, with Netweather saying the country has a 15 percent chance.
Ian Simpson, postdoctoral scholar in seasonal weather prediction at the University of Lincoln, added in response to Netweather’s tweet about snow: “Tonight’s ECMWF operational run has Britain under sub -5C 850hPa temperatures by T+216 (21 December).
“GFS takes until 28 Dec to bring the colder air in. There’s certainly some potential, though I note the ECMWF ensembles and SEAS5 still have the high staying over the UK.”
In another boost to hopes for a White Christmas, Dorset Snow told the Daily Echo that while the forecast appeared “incredibly settled” between now and Christmas, conditions could turn “more seasonal” in time for December 25.
He told the outlet: “There is a slim chance of cold winds arriving from the east or north-east during the final week of December, as blocking attempts to build to the north, but it is too early to be confident on this.
“A White Christmas can also not be ruled out at this stage with generally a higher chance than normal.”
Dorset Snow added dry and sunny spells were likely in the build-up to Christmas, and continued: “The weather looks incredibly settled for the time of year with a fair chance of no rainfall being recorded between now and Christmas Day.
“Plenty of dry and sunny spells are likely in the run up to Christmas with temperatures generally on the mild side to begin.
“We are however expecting a more seasonal feel to arrive just in time for the big day and this could bring the risk of fog and frost on the days leading up to and after Christmas Day.”
Sky News’ meteorologist Christopher England said however it will likely be “mostly dry and settled” over the festive period.
He said: “It’s far too early to give any detailed forecast, but it looks like being mostly dry and settled from Christmas through to New Year, with a risk of overnight fog and frost.
“It should be quite mild by day, with some sunshine, although any fog will be slow to clear, lingering all day in places.
“The far northwest looks more unsettled, with a risk of showers or longer spells of rain. There doesn’t seem to be much chance of a White Christmas.”
The Met Office’s long-range forecasts have also dampened hopes for snow on Christmas Day.
The Met Office said: “Heading into the Christmas period, settled conditions are likely.
“Temperatures perhaps close to or slightly above average for this time of year, however some colder interludes may bring a risk of frost at times.
“The last week of December and into early January is looking to remain settled, with an increasing chance of frost and fog during clearer spells for Christmas and towards New Year.”
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